SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 host SSV Ulm 1846 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have recorded 2W 1D 6L from 9 outings — 0.78 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Ulm 1846's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Darmstadt 98 at 0.90 PPG versus SSV Ulm 1846's 0.78. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 78% and SSV Ulm 1846 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 67% | SSV Ulm 1846 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.52 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.968 / defence 1.003 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.698 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.572. Data: 9 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 9 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 45% | Draw 29% | SSV Ulm 1846 26%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | SSV Ulm 1846 3.85. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SSV Ulm 1846 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 45% | Draw 29% | SSV Ulm 1846 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.52 / SSV Ulm 1846 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.968 / def 1.003 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.698 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.572 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 45% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.97) and SSV Ulm 1846's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Ulm 1846's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.49
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.62
1.10
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.10 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 3D 4L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Ulm 1846's form line: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.00 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.25 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
1
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846?
SSV Ulm 1846 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 100%, SSV Ulm 1846 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 25% (SSV Ulm 1846).
On the defensive side: SSV Ulm 1846 in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SSV Ulm 1846?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 25% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 25% of SSV Ulm 1846's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 10, as SV Darmstadt 98 and SSV Ulm 1846 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.52 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.10 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.70 / defence 0.92, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 45% | Draw 29% | SSV Ulm 1846 26%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 67%, SSV Ulm 1846 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.00 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.