SSV Ulm 1846 0-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Ulm 1846 at 40%, yet in-form 1. FC Köln provide a compelling counter-argument — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln meet at Donaustadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Ulm 1846's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 2W 4D 4L at Donaustadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Köln have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Köln are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SSV Ulm 1846, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with 1. FC Köln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SSV Ulm 1846 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 58% versus 1. FC Köln 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 42% | 1. FC Köln 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.16 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.813 / defence 0.985 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.707 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.282. Data: 24 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 24 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 40% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 26%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | 1. FC Köln 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Ulm 1846 as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Köln (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Ulm 1846 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Ulm 1846 60% | 1. FC Köln 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 40% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.16 / 1. FC Köln 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.813 / def 0.985 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.707 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: SSV Ulm 1846 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
0.89
1. FC Köln xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln?
SSV Ulm 1846 0 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 40% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making SSV Ulm 1846 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Ulm 1846 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SSV Ulm 1846's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.71x) against SSV Ulm 1846's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Ulm 1846 Win
40%
2.49
34%
2.97
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
2.06
0.89
1. FC Köln xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 0.89 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, SSV Ulm 1846 have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 3W 10D 11L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln's form line: 12W 5D 7L from 24 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1. FC Köln are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Ulm 1846.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 6W 1D 4L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.54 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Köln in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 3W 10D 11L in their last 24 games (0.79 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 12W 5D 7L in their last 24 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Ulm 1846 at home or 1. FC Köln away?
1. FC Köln's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 0.91 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.73 PPG.
Have SSV Ulm 1846 or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Ulm 1846 have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SSV Ulm 1846
0
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 0-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Ulm 1846 64%, 1. FC Köln 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SSV Ulm 1846) and 46% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 36%; SSV Ulm 1846 have failed to score in 36% of games; 1. FC Köln in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play 1. FC Köln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent matches and 36% of 1. FC Köln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent games and 46% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
SSV Ulm 1846 have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat SSV Ulm 1846 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat SSV Ulm 1846 0-1 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.16 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.89 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SSV Ulm 1846 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.71 / defence 0.95, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 40% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 26%, with SSV Ulm 1846 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 42%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.