Preußen Münster 1-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Preußen Münster host SV Elversberg at Preußen-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Preußen Münster have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 outings — a 0.62 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Preußen-Stadion, Preußen Münster have gone 0W 2D 2L this season (4 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
SV Elversberg — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SV Elversberg — 0.58 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.62). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Preußen Münster in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preußen Münster 62% versus SV Elversberg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Preußen Münster 75% | SV Elversberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.14 xG and SV Elversberg 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.782 / defence 1.191 | SV Elversberg attack 1.046 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.497. Preußen Münster's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Preußen Münster games / 42 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 21% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 52%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | SV Elversberg 1.92. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Preußen Münster 50% | SV Elversberg 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Preußen-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 21% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Preußen Münster 1.14 / SV Elversberg 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.782 / def 1.191 | SV Elversberg attack 1.046 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.86
SV Elversberg xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Preußen-Stadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg?
Preußen Münster 1 - 1 SV Elversberg.
Where is Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Preußen-Stadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg part of?
Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 21% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Preußen Münster's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against SV Elversberg's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus Preußen Münster's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
21%
4.80
27%
3.71
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
3.00
1.86
SV Elversberg xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
3%
30.96
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.86 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Preußen Münster come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 2D 5L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Preußen Münster — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Preußen Münster's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.75 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: SV Elversberg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 0.50 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Preußen Münster or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preußen Münster have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when SV Elversberg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preußen Münster's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Preußen Münster
2
Draws
1
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg?
From 4 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SV Elversberg 3-0 Preußen Münster.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Preußen Münster tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
SV Elversberg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preußen Münster 50%, SV Elversberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Preußen Münster) and 50% (SV Elversberg).
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 50%; Preußen Münster have failed to score in 50% of games; SV Elversberg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play SV Elversberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Preußen Münster's recent matches and 50% of SV Elversberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preußen Münster vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 50% of SV Elversberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preußen Münster and SV Elversberg finished level at 1-1 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.14 xG and SV Elversberg 1.86 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SV Elversberg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.78 / defence 1.19 against SV Elversberg attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 21% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 52%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 75%, SV Elversberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.