Preußen Münster 1-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Preußen-Stadion to face Preußen Münster in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Preußen Münster (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Preußen Münster have posted 1W 3D 3L at Preußen-Stadion — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Preußen Münster half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 57% and 1. FC Magdeburg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 43% | 1. FC Magdeburg 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 0.96 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.714 / defence 0.933 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.096 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.540. Preußen Münster's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Preußen Münster games / 48 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 21% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.00. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Preußen Münster 43% | 1. FC Magdeburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Preußen-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 21% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Preußen Münster 0.96 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.714 / def 0.933 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.096 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.57
1. FC Magdeburg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Preußen-Stadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Preußen Münster 1 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Preußen-Stadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 21% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Preußen Münster's attack rating (0.71) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.10x) against Preußen Münster's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
21%
4.81
30%
3.37
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.53
1.57
1. FC Magdeburg xG
4.81
21%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
4%
23.26
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.57 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Preußen Münster come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 6D 6L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (5W 6D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Preußen Münster — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Preußen Münster's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 2.29 points per game from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — 1. FC Magdeburg travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg in 64%.
Last 14 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 6D 3L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 0.86 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 2.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: 1. FC Magdeburg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Preußen Münster won 0-5 on 2 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preußen Münster have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Preußen Münster
0
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 1, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Preußen Münster 1-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preußen Münster see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preußen Münster 43%, 1. FC Magdeburg 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Preußen Münster) and 86% (1. FC Magdeburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preußen Münster have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Preußen Münster's games and 71% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Preußen Münster's matches and 86% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Preußen Münster and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Magdeburg edge out Preußen Münster 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Preußen Münster 1-2 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 0.96 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.71 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 21% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 43%, 1. FC Magdeburg 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.