SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-2 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 12 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 2.40 PPG across 5 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 2W 3D 0L across 5 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in SSV Jahn Regensburg's favour (2.40 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | 1. FC Nürnberg 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | 1. FC Nürnberg 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.74 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.404 / defence 0.966 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.747 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.304. SSV Jahn Regensburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.404 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 5 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 5 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 17%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Nürnberg 5.88. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | 1. FC Nürnberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.74 / 1. FC Nürnberg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.404 / def 0.966 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.747 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
1. FC Nürnberg xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 53% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (1.40) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.75x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
53%
1.89
30%
3.30
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.68
0.94
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
33.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0.94 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 0D 1L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Jahn Regensburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. SSV Jahn Regensburg's scoring rate against 1. FC Nürnberg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 8-3 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 40% (1. FC Nürnberg) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 40% (1. FC Nürnberg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%; 1. FC Nürnberg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 40% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 40% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 6, as SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.74 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.40 / defence 0.97 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 17%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 60%, 1. FC Nürnberg 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SSV Jahn Regensburg shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.