1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg host SSV Ulm 1846 at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 6W 2D 2L at Max-Morlock-Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Ulm 1846 stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Ulm 1846 away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, 1. FC Nürnberg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 0 for SSV Ulm 1846 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 67% and SSV Ulm 1846 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 67% | SSV Ulm 1846 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.76 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.069 / defence 0.876 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.796 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.489. Data: 55 1. FC Nürnberg games / 21 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 24% | SSV Ulm 1846 22%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | SSV Ulm 1846 4.55. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | SSV Ulm 1846 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 24% | SSV Ulm 1846 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.76 / SSV Ulm 1846 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.069 / def 0.876 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.796 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.489 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.04
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 0 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 54% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 0 | SSV Ulm 1846 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against SSV Ulm 1846's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Ulm 1846's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.11
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.80
1.04
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
4%
26.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.04 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 9W 4D 8L from 21 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Ulm 1846, meanwhile, have gone 3W 8D 10L across 21 games — 0.81 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Nürnberg by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SSV Ulm 1846 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — 1. FC Nürnberg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SSV Ulm 1846's away record stands at 1W 5D 4L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 1.14 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 62%.
Last 21 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 3W 8D 10L in their last 21 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 2.00 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
1. FC Nürnberg
0
Draws
0
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 SSV Ulm 1846.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, SSV Ulm 1846 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 50% (SSV Ulm 1846). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 30% of games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SSV Ulm 1846?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 60% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 50% of SSV Ulm 1846's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SSV Ulm 1846.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SSV Ulm 1846 2-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.76 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.04 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 24% | SSV Ulm 1846 22%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 67%, SSV Ulm 1846 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.