1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg make the trip to Max-Morlock-Stadion to face 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 3W 1D 6L at Max-Morlock-Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 0.80 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 1W, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 51% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 55% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.772 / defence 1.024 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.949 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.303. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 1. FC Nürnberg games / 53 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 38% | Draw 26% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 35%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 38% | Draw 26% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.772 / def 1.024 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.949 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 38% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 2 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.95x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.79
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.60
1.27
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.27 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 19W 13D 21L from 53 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 24L across 53 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.11 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 11W 4D 11L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record stands at 6W 6D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.34 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 15W 14D 24L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.42 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.92 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 8-3 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 46% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 27% of games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 46% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.27 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.77 / defence 1.02 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 38% | Draw 26% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 35%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 55%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.