Saint Etienne 1-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Caen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Caen travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne in Ligue 2 (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Saint Etienne at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Caen have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Caen's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Saint Etienne are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 0 for Caen and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Saint Etienne 2–1 Caen — a Saint Etienne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Caen in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 47% versus Caen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 46% | Caen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.72 xG and Caen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.119 / defence 0.805 | Caen attack 1.088 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.146. Caen's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 72 games and Caen's last 72.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 54% | Draw 25% | Caen 22%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.86 | Draw 4.05 | Caen 4.65. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Caen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 50% (last 10 home games) | Caen 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 35 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 54% | Draw 25% | Caen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.72 / Caen 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.119 / def 0.805 | Caen attack 1.088 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Caen xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Caen FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Caen kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Caen kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Caen?
Saint Etienne 1 - 0 Caen.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Caen part of?
Saint Etienne vs Caen is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 35) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 54% chance of winning, Caen a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Saint Etienne and Caen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Saint Etienne vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.12x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 72 games and Caen's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.05
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.73
1.00
Caen xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
26.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Caen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.00 for Caen, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 33W 17D 22L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Caen's form line: 31W 17D 24L from 72 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.61 PPG, Caen on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.78 PPG from their last 36 home games (19W 7D 10L).
On the road, Caen have gone 11W 8D 17L from their last 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.35 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Caen
Current Season
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Caen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Caen
Current Season
❓ Saint Etienne vs Caen Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Caen in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 33W 17D 22L in their last 72 games (1.61 PPG), while Caen have gone 31W 17D 24L in their last 72 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Caen away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.78 PPG; Caen away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Caen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Saint Etienne have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Caen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
0
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Caen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Caen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 2, Caen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Caen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Saint Etienne 1-0 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Caen?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 42%, Caen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Saint Etienne) and 58% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Caen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Caen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Caen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 64% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Caen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 58% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Caen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 75% of Caen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Caen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Caen 1-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.72 xG and Caen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Caen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.12 / defence 0.81 against Caen attack 1.09 / defence 1.28, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 54% | Draw 25% | Caen 22%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 46%, Caen 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Caen's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.61 PPG, Caen 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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