Annecy 3-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Bastia at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2 (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Annecy — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Annecy at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Bastia have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bastia away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.60 PPG versus Bastia's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Bastia have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Annecy. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Annecy 1–2 Bastia — a Bastia win.
Bastia have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bastia in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 51% | Bastia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.99 xG and Bastia 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.820 / defence 1.076 | Bastia attack 1.081 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Data: built from Annecy's last 72 games and Bastia's last 72.
Result probabilities: Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Bastia 44%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.64 | Draw 3.52 | Bastia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Bastia 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 40% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 35 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Bastia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Annecy 0.99 / Bastia 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.820 / def 1.076 | Bastia attack 1.081 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Bastia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bastia xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Bastia kick off?
Annecy vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Annecy 3 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Annecy vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Bastia part of?
Annecy vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 35) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 28% chance of winning, Bastia a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Annecy vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.82x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 72 games and Bastia's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
28%
3.64
28%
3.52
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.31
1.32
Bastia xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Annecy and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Annecy and 1.32 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 21W 21D 30L from 72 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 25L across 72 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.17 PPG, Bastia on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 13W 10D 13L from their last 36 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 11W 9D 16L across their last 36 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
Annecy (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Annecy vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Bastia in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 21W 21D 30L in their last 72 games (1.17 PPG), while Bastia have gone 30W 17D 25L in their last 72 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Bastia away?
Annecy's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.36 PPG; Bastia away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Annecy or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won Bastia 3-0 Annecy.
Annecy's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 3, Bastia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 42%, Bastia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Annecy) and 42% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 36% of games; Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Annecy's recent matches and 47% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Annecy's recent games and 42% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Annecy's recent matches and 69% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Bastia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Bastia 3-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.99 xG and Bastia 1.32 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Bastia attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Bastia 44%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 51%, Bastia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.17 PPG, Bastia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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