Reims vs RED Star FC 93 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Reims welcome RED Star FC 93 to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reims 1.80 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Reims register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, RED Star FC 93 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Reims, 0 for RED Star FC 93 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 4–1 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 56% versus RED Star FC 93 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | RED Star FC 93 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.54 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.381 / defence 1.178 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.981 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.276. Reims carry an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Reims games / 38 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 37% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 34%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | RED Star FC 93 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 70% | RED Star FC 93 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 37% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Reims 1.54 / RED Star FC 93 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.381 / def 1.178 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.981 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Reims (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.47
RED Star FC 93 xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Reims vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 22 January 2027 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Where is Reims vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Reims vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 37% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Reims and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and RED Star FC 93?
Record (3 meetings): Reims 2W | Draws 1 | RED Star FC 93 0W.
What form are Reims and RED Star FC 93 in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Reims's attack rating (1.38) and RED Star FC 93's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.47
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Reims xG
Total xG
3.01
1.47
RED Star FC 93 xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Reims and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Reims and 1.47 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 16W 17D 6L from 39 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 10L across 39 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.67 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 9W 7D 3L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 10W 4D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.33 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; RED Star FC 93 in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 16W 17D 6L in their last 39 games (1.67 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 17W 12D 10L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Reims's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.79 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Reims or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Reims have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Reims won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Reims
1
Draws
0
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and RED Star FC 93?
From 3 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when RED Star FC 93 1-4 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and RED Star FC 93?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 58%, RED Star FC 93 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Reims) and 47% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Reims's recent matches and 42% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Reims's recent games and 47% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.