PAU 1-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 50%, yet in-form Dunkerque provide a compelling counter-argument — this PAU vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAU host Dunkerque at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAU have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Nouste Camp — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dunkerque are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Dunkerque have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against PAU's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Dunkerque winning.
It is worth noting that Dunkerque have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
PAU in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 54% versus Dunkerque 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 53% | Dunkerque 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.45 xG and Dunkerque 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.003 / defence 0.851 | Dunkerque attack 1.028 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.026. Data: 55 PAU games / 55 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 50% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 23%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Dunkerque 4.35. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dunkerque (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: PAU 40% | Dunkerque 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 50% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG PAU 1.45 / Dunkerque 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.003 / def 0.851 | Dunkerque attack 1.028 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: PAU (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Dunkerque xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Dunkerque kick off?
PAU vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Dunkerque?
PAU 1 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is PAU vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Dunkerque part of?
PAU vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 50% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAU and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dunkerque?
Record (5 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 4W.
What form are PAU and Dunkerque in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.00) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.65
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
PAU xG
Total xG
2.35
0.90
Dunkerque xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are PAU and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for PAU and 0.90 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, PAU have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 17D 19L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque's form line: 22W 12D 21L from 55 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.35 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 19W 17D 19L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 22W 12D 21L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Dunkerque away?
PAU's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.63 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2025, when Dunkerque won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
PAU
2
Draws
6
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dunkerque?
From 9 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Dunkerque have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when PAU 2-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 48%, Dunkerque 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAU) and 41% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Dunkerque in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAU's recent matches and 52% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAU's recent games and 41% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Dunkerque tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Dunkerque finished level at 1-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.45 xG and Dunkerque 0.90 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.00 / defence 0.85 against Dunkerque attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 50% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 23%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 53%, Dunkerque 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.35 PPG, Dunkerque 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.