Paris FC 1-2 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Paris FC at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Paris FC face Bordeaux.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bordeaux make the trip to Stade Charléty to face Paris FC in Ligue 2 (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Paris FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Paris FC have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Paris FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bordeaux have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bordeaux away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Paris FC against 0.90 for Bordeaux. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (from Paris FC's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games) — Paris FC have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Bordeaux in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Paris FC, 2 for Bordeaux and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Paris FC 1–2 Bordeaux — a Bordeaux win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 45% versus Bordeaux 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 47% | Bordeaux 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.42 xG and Bordeaux 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.004 / defence 0.944 | Bordeaux attack 0.709 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.178. Bordeaux's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Paris FC's last 52 games and Bordeaux's last 51.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 52% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 21%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.92 | Draw 3.68 | Bordeaux 4.81. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Paris FC's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 20% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 15 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 52% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Paris FC 1.42 / Bordeaux 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.004 / def 0.944 | Bordeaux attack 0.709 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bordeaux xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Bordeaux kick off?
Paris FC vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Bordeaux?
Paris FC 1 - 2 Bordeaux.
Where is Paris FC vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Bordeaux part of?
Paris FC vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 52% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Paris FC and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Paris FC vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (0.71x) against Paris FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 52 games and Bordeaux's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.68
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.21
0.79
Bordeaux xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
5%
19.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.79 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris FC come into this having played 51 games, going 20W 11D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 1.67 PPG from 51 outings (24W 13D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Paris FC against 1.67 for Bordeaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Paris FC's home form reads 11W 4D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 26 away games (9W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Paris FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.27 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Bordeaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 20W 11D 20L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 24W 13D 14L in their last 51 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Bordeaux away?
Paris FC's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.42 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Paris FC and Bordeaux, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Paris FC
1
Draws
3
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bordeaux?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 0, Bordeaux have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2024: Bordeaux 3-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 38%, Bordeaux 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Paris FC) and 42% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bordeaux in 35%; Paris FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Bordeaux in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Bordeaux matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Paris FC's recent matches and 35% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Paris FC's recent games and 42% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Paris FC's recent matches and 73% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bordeaux defy the odds to beat Paris FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Paris FC 1-2 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.42 xG and Bordeaux 0.79 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bordeaux outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Bordeaux attack 0.71 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 52% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 21%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bordeaux win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 47%, Bordeaux 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bordeaux's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.39 PPG, Bordeaux 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 15
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →