Bastia 0-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bastia host Auxerre at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand-Césari than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Auxerre have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Auxerre's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Bastia's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bastia, 1 for Auxerre and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 44% versus Auxerre 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.54 xG and Auxerre 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.136 / defence 1.164 | Auxerre attack 1.266 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.178. Auxerre have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Bastia games / 14 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 34% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 43%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Auxerre 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 70% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 34% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Bastia 1.54 / Auxerre 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.136 / def 1.164 | Auxerre attack 1.266 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Auxerre xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Auxerre kick off?
Bastia vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Auxerre?
Bastia 0 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Bastia vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Auxerre part of?
Bastia vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 34% chance of winning, Auxerre a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bastia and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Bastia and Auxerre in?
Bastia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bastia's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
34%
2.91
23%
4.34
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bastia xG
Total xG
3.27
1.74
Auxerre xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
6%
16.52
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Bastia and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bastia and 1.74 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia's recent record stands at 21W 13D 18L from 52 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 22L across 52 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.46 PPG, Auxerre on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 15W 5D 6L from 26 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Auxerre's away record stands at 7W 6D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.25 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 21W 13D 18L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Auxerre away?
Bastia's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.92 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bastia or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Auxerre in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Bastia's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bastia
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 0, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Auxerre 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 42%, Auxerre 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bastia) and 58% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bastia's recent matches and 65% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bastia's recent games and 58% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Auxerre tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Auxerre finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.54 xG and Auxerre 1.74 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against Auxerre attack 1.27 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 34% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 43%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.46 PPG, Auxerre 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.