Niort 0-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Le Havre at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Niort face Le Havre.

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Full Analysis

Stade René Gaillard plays host to Niort versus Le Havre in Ligue 2 (matchday 8). Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Niort (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Niort's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Le Havre's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Niort, 1.20 for Le Havre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Niort, 1 for Le Havre and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2022, ended Niort 0–0 Le Havre — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Niort half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 40% versus Le Havre 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 42% | Le Havre 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.93 xG and Le Havre 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.885 / defence 1.234 | Le Havre attack 1.422 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.150. Le Havre have an above-average attack rating of 1.422, which lifts their away xG to 2.02. Niort's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Le Havre's projected output up. Data: built from Niort's last 45 games and Le Havre's last 45.

Result probabilities: Niort 16% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 62%. Fair-value odds: Niort 6.12 | Draw 4.70 | Le Havre 1.60. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Niort 60% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 40% (last 10 away games).

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