Le Havre 2-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Annecy at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Annecy — All Games: 2W 3D 3L from 8 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.75 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Le Havre 1.50 PPG, Annecy 1.12 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Annecy 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 38% | Annecy 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.00 xG and Annecy 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.903 / defence 0.969 | Annecy attack 0.787 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.180. Data: 46 Le Havre games / 8 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 32% | Annecy 31%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Annecy 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 60% | Annecy 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 32% | Annecy 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Le Havre 1.00 / Annecy 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.903 / def 0.969 | Annecy attack 0.787 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Annecy xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Annecy kick off?
Le Havre vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Annecy?
Le Havre 2 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Le Havre vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Annecy part of?
Le Havre vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 36% chance of winning, Annecy a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Le Havre and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Annecy in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Annecy (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.90x the league average against Annecy's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.75
32%
3.08
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.90
0.90
Annecy xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.90 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre's recent record stands at 4W 3D 1L from 8 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 3L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 0.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy in 25%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Annecy in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Annecy in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Annecy have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Annecy away?
Le Havre's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.50 PPG; Annecy away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Annecy in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Annecy runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Le Havre
0
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Annecy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2023, when Annecy 1-0 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Annecy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 75%, Annecy 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Le Havre and 25% for Annecy.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 50%; Annecy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Le Havre's recent matches and 25% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Le Havre's recent games and 25% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Annecy tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Annecy in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Annecy 2-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.00 xG and Annecy 0.90 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Annecy attack 0.79 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 36% | Draw 32% | Annecy 31%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 38%, Annecy 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.