Le Mans 1-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Mans vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade Marie-Marvingt to face Le Mans in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Mans have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Mans, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Mans at Stade Marie-Marvingt this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Marie-Marvingt. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guingamp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Le Mans's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Le Mans 0W, Guingamp 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Le Mans goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 18% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games).
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Mans 52% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Mans 35% | Guingamp 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Mans 0.94 xG and Guingamp 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Mans attack 0.754 / defence 0.751 | Guingamp attack 1.064 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.197. Le Mans's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Le Mans's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Le Mans games / 57 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Mans 34% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 34%. Fair-value odds: Le Mans 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Guingamp 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Mans 20% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Mans vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Marie-Marvingt • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Mans 34% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Le Mans 0.94 / Guingamp 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Le Mans attack 0.754 / def 0.751 | Guingamp attack 1.064 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Le Mans xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Guingamp xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Mans vs Guingamp kick off?
Le Mans vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 23 February 2026 at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What was the final score in Le Mans vs Guingamp?
Le Mans 1 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Le Mans vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What competition is Le Mans vs Guingamp part of?
Le Mans vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Mans vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Le Mans a 34% chance of winning, Guingamp a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Le Mans and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Le Mans vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Le Mans 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Le Mans and Guingamp in?
Le Mans (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Mans's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.06x) against Le Mans's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.14
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Le Mans xG
Total xG
1.90
0.96
Guingamp xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 14.3 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Mans vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Le Mans and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Le Mans and 0.96 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Mans vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Le Mans have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 10W 9D 4L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Le Mans is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 9W 6D 8L from 23 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Le Mans against 1.43 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Mans have posted 2.00 PPG from 11 outings (6W 4D 1L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 4L from 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Mans come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Mans are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.48 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Mans
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Mans and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Le Mans have gone 10W 9D 4L in their last 23 games (1.70 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 9W 6D 8L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Mans at home or Guingamp away?
Le Mans's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Mans at home: 2.00 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Le Mans or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Guingamp in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Le Mans
2
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and Guingamp?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Mans have won 0, Guingamp have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Mans and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Le Mans 1-1 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Mans tend to start slowly — only 18% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Mans 18%, Guingamp 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 9% (Le Mans) and 73% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Le Mans keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Le Mans have failed to score in 27% of games; Guingamp in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Mans home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Mans play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Le Mans's recent matches and 64% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Mans vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Le Mans's recent games and 73% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Mans and Guingamp tend to score early?
Le Mans have had a goal before half-time in 18% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Mans and Guingamp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 24, as Le Mans and Guingamp drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 0.94 xG and Guingamp 0.96 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 0.75 / defence 0.75 against Guingamp attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Mans 34% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 34%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 35%, Guingamp 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Mans's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Mans 1.70 PPG, Guingamp 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.