Laval 0-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Laval at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis Le Basser plays host to Laval versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 29 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Laval have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Laval have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Francis Le Basser — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Clermont Foot (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Laval against 1.40 for Clermont Foot. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Laval 0W, Clermont Foot 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 51% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 43% | Clermont Foot 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.75 xG and Clermont Foot 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.167 / defence 1.192 | Clermont Foot attack 1.013 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.154. Data: 37 Laval games / 37 Clermont Foot games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Laval 46% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 31%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Clermont Foot 3.23. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Laval 50% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 46% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Laval 1.75 / Clermont Foot 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.167 / def 1.192 | Clermont Foot attack 1.013 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Laval (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Clermont Foot xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Laval vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Laval 0 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Laval vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Clermont Foot part of?
Laval vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 46% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Laval and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Laval 0W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Laval and Clermont Foot in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Laval's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.01x) against Laval's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
46%
2.17
23%
4.30
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Laval xG
Total xG
3.15
1.39
Clermont Foot xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
5%
18.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Laval and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Laval and 1.39 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Laval have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 14W 11D 12L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot's form line: 8W 13D 16L from 37 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Laval are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.95 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 14W 11D 12L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Clermont Foot away?
Laval's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.56 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 3 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Laval
2
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Laval have won 0, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when Clermont Foot 4-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 56%, Clermont Foot 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Laval) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Laval's recent matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Laval's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Laval's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 4, as Laval and Clermont Foot drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.75 xG and Clermont Foot 1.39 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Laval fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Clermont Foot landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.17 / defence 1.19 against Clermont Foot attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Laval 46% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 31%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 43%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.