Guingamp 3-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Guingamp welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 3, Saint Etienne 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus Saint Etienne 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 57% | Saint Etienne 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.33 xG and Saint Etienne 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.075 / defence 1.154 | Saint Etienne attack 1.074 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.337. Data: 44 Guingamp games / 44 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 31% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 45%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Saint Etienne 2.22. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Saint Etienne 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 31% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Guingamp 1.33 / Saint Etienne 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.075 / def 1.154 | Saint Etienne attack 1.074 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Saint Etienne xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Guingamp 3 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne part of?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 31% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Guingamp and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 3W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Saint Etienne in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.07x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
31%
3.24
24%
4.13
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.99
1.66
Saint Etienne xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
6%
17.01
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.66 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 12D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.82 PPG from 44 outings (24W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Guingamp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.70 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 24W 8D 12L in their last 44 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.38 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Saint Etienne runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2026, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
From 7 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Guingamp 3-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 43%, Saint Etienne 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 57% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 33%; Guingamp have failed to score in 29% of games; Saint Etienne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Guingamp's recent matches and 48% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Guingamp's recent games and 57% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Saint Etienne 3-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.33 xG and Saint Etienne 1.66 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Saint Etienne attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 31% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 45%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 57%, Saint Etienne 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Guingamp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.