Caen 3-3 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Caen welcome Quevilly to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Caen) versus 1.00 (Quevilly). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Caen, 2 for Quevilly and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Caen in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 61% versus Quevilly 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 53% | Quevilly 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.53 xG and Quevilly 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.035 / defence 0.981 | Quevilly attack 1.070 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.119. Data: 51 Caen games / 51 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Quevilly 3.45. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Caen 70% | Quevilly 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Caen 1.53 / Quevilly 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.035 / def 0.981 | Quevilly attack 1.070 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Caen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Quevilly xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Quevilly kick off?
Caen vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Quevilly?
Caen 3 - 3 Quevilly.
Where is Caen vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Quevilly part of?
Caen vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 45% chance of winning, Quevilly a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Caen and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Quevilly?
Record (4 meetings): Caen 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 2W.
What form are Caen and Quevilly in?
Caen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.03) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.86
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Caen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.18
Quevilly xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Caen and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Caen and 1.18 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Caen have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 20W 14D 17L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 14W 18D 19L from 51 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.45 PPG, Quevilly on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.84 PPG from 25 outings (13W 7D 5L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Caen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Caen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 20W 14D 17L in their last 51 games (1.45 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 14W 18D 19L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Quevilly away?
Caen's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.84 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Caen's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Caen
2
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, Quevilly have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Quevilly 1-2 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 60%, Quevilly 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Caen) and 40% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Quevilly in 36%; Quevilly in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Caen's recent matches and 36% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Caen's recent games and 40% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Quevilly tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen and Quevilly share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 14, as Caen and Quevilly drew 3-3 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.53 xG and Quevilly 1.18 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Quevilly attack 1.07 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 53%, Quevilly 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Quevilly's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.45 PPG, Quevilly 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Caen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.