Bastia 1-0 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bastia at 1.40 PPG versus RED Star FC 93's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bastia have won 0, RED Star FC 93 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 52% versus RED Star FC 93 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 35% | RED Star FC 93 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.75 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.162 / defence 0.859 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.825 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.086. RED Star FC 93 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Bastia games / 23 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 61% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 16%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | RED Star FC 93 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 60% | RED Star FC 93 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 61% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Bastia 1.75 / RED Star FC 93 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.162 / def 0.859 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.825 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Bastia (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.77
RED Star FC 93 xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Bastia 1 - 0 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 61% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bastia and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and RED Star FC 93?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 1 | RED Star FC 93 0W.
What form are Bastia and RED Star FC 93 in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bastia's attack rating (1.16) and RED Star FC 93's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.33
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.52
0.77
RED Star FC 93 xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
3%
35.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bastia and 0.77 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs RED Star FC 93?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 13D 4L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RED Star FC 93 sit at 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.35 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bastia's home form reads 4W 7D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, RED Star FC 93 have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.00 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 6W 13D 4L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Bastia's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.73 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Bastia or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Bastia
1
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and RED Star FC 93?
From 3 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when RED Star FC 93 4-3 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 54%, RED Star FC 93 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bastia) and 36% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 27% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bastia's recent matches and 54% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bastia's recent games and 36% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out RED Star FC 93 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat RED Star FC 93 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.75 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.77 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 61% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 16%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 35%, RED Star FC 93 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.35 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.