Annecy 0-0 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Nimes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nimes make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Friday 30 December 2022 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Annecy's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Annecy at home: 3W 1D 4L from their last 8 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Nimes have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nimes's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Annecy. A 0.60 PPG lead over Nimes (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Nimes — key trading statistics (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 25% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 31% | Nimes 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.21 xG and Nimes 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.818 / defence 1.156 | Nimes attack 1.002 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.990. Nimes's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Annecy's last 16 games and Nimes's last 54.
Result probabilities: Annecy 37% | Draw 28% | Nimes 35%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.67 | Draw 3.57 | Nimes 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Annecy 38% (last 8 home games) | Nimes 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 17 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 30 December 2022 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 37% | Draw 28% | Nimes 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Annecy 1.21 / Nimes 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.818 / def 1.156 | Nimes attack 1.002 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Annecy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Nimes xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Nimes FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Nimes kick off?
Annecy vs Nimes kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 30 December 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Nimes?
Annecy 0 - 0 Nimes.
Where is Annecy vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Nimes part of?
Annecy vs Nimes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 17) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 37% chance of winning, Nimes a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Annecy and Nimes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Annecy vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.82) and Nimes's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nimes's attack (1.00x) against Annecy's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 16 games and Nimes's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.57
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.35
1.15
Nimes xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Nimes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Annecy and 1.15 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy's recent record stands at 5W 4D 7L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Nimes, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 9L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Annecy against 0.94 for Nimes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 3W 1D 4L from their last 8 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nimes's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across their last 8 away games, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nimes's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 0.94 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Nimes
Blended
Annecy (Home) vs Nimes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Annecy vs Nimes Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Nimes in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Nimes have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Nimes away?
Annecy's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.25 PPG; Nimes away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Annecy or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nimes in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Annecy and Nimes, the earliest from December 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Nimes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Nimes?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 0, Nimes have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Annecy and Nimes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2023: Nimes 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Nimes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 38%, Nimes 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Annecy) and 62% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Annecy have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Nimes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Nimes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Annecy's games and 88% of Nimes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Annecy and Nimes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Annecy's recent games and 62% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Nimes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Annecy's recent matches and 100% of Nimes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Nimes finished level at 0-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.21 xG and Nimes 1.15 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Nimes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Nimes attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 37% | Draw 28% | Nimes 35%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 31%, Nimes 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nimes's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.19 PPG, Nimes 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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