Laval 0-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade Francis Le Basser to face Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 30 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Laval have posted 3W 1D 4L at Stade Francis Le Basser — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Laval against 1.30 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Laval have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Amiens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 50% versus Amiens 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 62% | Amiens 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.44 xG and Amiens 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.118 / defence 1.225 | Amiens attack 0.932 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.990. Data: 16 Laval games / 54 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 44% | Draw 26% | Amiens 30%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Amiens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 62% | Amiens 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 44% | Draw 26% | Amiens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Laval 1.44 / Amiens 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.118 / def 1.225 | Amiens attack 0.932 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Laval (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Amiens xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Amiens kick off?
Laval vs Amiens kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Amiens?
Laval 0 - 3 Amiens.
Where is Laval vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Amiens part of?
Laval vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 44% chance of winning, Amiens a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Laval and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Laval and Amiens in?
Laval (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Amiens (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Laval's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.93x) against Laval's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.81
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Laval xG
Total xG
2.56
1.13
Amiens xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Laval and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Laval and 1.13 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Laval come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 2D 8L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Laval against 1.50 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Laval's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amiens's season.
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.06 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Amiens in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 6W 2D 8L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Amiens have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Amiens away?
Laval's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.25 PPG; Amiens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Laval or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Amiens in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 0-3 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Laval
3
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 3, Amiens have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Amiens 0-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Amiens?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 62%, Amiens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Laval) and 38% (Amiens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Laval's games and 50% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Laval's matches and 38% of Amiens's.
Do Laval and Amiens tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Amiens in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Amiens run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Laval 0-3 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.44 xG and Amiens 1.13 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Laval fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Amiens outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.12 / defence 1.23 against Amiens attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 44% | Draw 26% | Amiens 30%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 62%, Amiens 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.25 PPG, Amiens 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.