Amiens 3-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Niort make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Amiens (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Amiens have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Niort's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Niort's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Amiens. A 0.60 PPG lead over Niort (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Amiens, 0 for Niort and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2022, ended Amiens 3–1 Niort — a Amiens win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Niort — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 48% versus Niort 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 39% | Niort 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.71 xG and Niort 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.082 / defence 0.811 | Niort attack 1.028 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.180. Niort's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Amiens's projected output up. Data: built from Amiens's last 46 games and Niort's last 46.
Result probabilities: Amiens 54% | Draw 24% | Niort 21%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.84 | Draw 4.09 | Niort 4.70. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Amiens 40% (last 10 home games) | Niort 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 9 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 54% | Draw 24% | Niort 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Amiens 1.71 / Niort 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.082 / def 0.811 | Niort attack 1.028 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Amiens (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Niort xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Niort FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Niort kick off?
Amiens vs Niort kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Niort?
Amiens 3 - 0 Niort.
Where is Amiens vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Niort part of?
Amiens vs Niort is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 54% chance of winning, Niort a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Amiens and Niort will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Amiens vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Amiens's attack rating (1.08) and Niort's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (1.03x) against Amiens's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 46 games and Niort's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.09
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.70
0.98
Niort xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
4%
26.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Niort Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Amiens and 0.98 for Niort, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 13W 19D 14L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Niort's form line: 14W 11D 21L from 46 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Amiens against 1.15 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 7D 6L).
On the road, Niort have gone 6W 6D 11L from their last 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.02 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Niort
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Niort (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Niort Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Niort in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 13W 19D 14L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Niort have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Niort away?
Amiens's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.61 PPG; Niort away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Amiens or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Niort in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Amiens and Niort, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 31 January 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Amiens have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won Amiens 3-0 Niort on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Niort H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Niort?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and Niort last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2023: Niort 1-3 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Niort?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 39%, Niort 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Amiens) and 48% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 30% of games; Niort in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Niort Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Niort matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Amiens's recent matches and 39% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Niort matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Amiens's recent games and 48% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Niort matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Amiens's recent matches and 70% of Niort's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Amiens run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Niort 3-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.71 xG and Niort 0.98 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Niort landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against Niort attack 1.03 / defence 1.27, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 54% | Draw 24% | Niort 21%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 39%, Niort 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Niort's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.26 PPG, Niort 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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