AC Oulu 1-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Mariehamn meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raatin stadion, AC Oulu have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raatin stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AC Oulu are significantly better at Raatin stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mariehamn (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for AC Oulu, 0.70 for Mariehamn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AC Oulu, 1 for Mariehamn and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Mariehamn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 64% versus Mariehamn 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 60% | Mariehamn 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.38 xG and Mariehamn 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.758 / defence 0.843 | Mariehamn attack 0.750 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.249. AC Oulu's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 AC Oulu games / 44 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 50% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 21%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Mariehamn 4.76. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 20% | Mariehamn 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 50% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG AC Oulu 1.38 / Mariehamn 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.758 / def 0.843 | Mariehamn attack 0.750 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Mariehamn xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kick off?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
AC Oulu 1 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn part of?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 50% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both AC Oulu and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
Record (4 meetings): AC Oulu 2W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.76x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.75x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.43
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.17
0.79
Mariehamn xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
5%
19.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for AC Oulu and 0.79 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 18W 13D 24L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 12W 13D 30L from 55 games, 0.89 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for AC Oulu against 0.89 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 5W 5D 17L from 27 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.02 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 18W 13D 24L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 12W 13D 30L in their last 55 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Mariehamn away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.56 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Mariehamn have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 52%, Mariehamn 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AC Oulu) and 59% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of AC Oulu's games and 59% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AC Oulu's recent games and 59% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Mariehamn tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat AC Oulu 1-2 at Raatin stadion, Relegation Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.38 xG and Mariehamn 0.79 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.76 / defence 0.84 against Mariehamn attack 0.75 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 50% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 21%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 60%, Mariehamn 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.22 PPG, Mariehamn 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.