Nottingham Forest 0-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to The City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Nottingham Forest (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Nottingham Forest at The City Ground this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The City Ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Nottingham Forest are significantly better at The City Ground than their overall form suggests.
Everton have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Everton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Nottingham Forest, 1.50 for Everton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nottingham Forest lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Nottingham Forest winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Everton — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 56% versus Everton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 54% | Everton 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.34 xG and Everton 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 1.123 / defence 0.606 | Everton attack 0.703 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.419. Nottingham Forest's defence rating of 0.606 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Nottingham Forest games / 69 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 55% | Draw 28% | Everton 17%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Everton 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Nottingham Forest (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Everton's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 40% | Everton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 55% | Draw 28% | Everton 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 34% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.34 / Everton 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 1.123 / def 0.606 | Everton attack 0.703 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Everton xG
34%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Everton kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 1 Everton.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Everton part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Everton is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 55% chance of winning, Everton a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
Record (5 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 2 | Everton 2W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Everton in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Everton (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.70x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
55%
1.82
28%
3.52
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
1.95
0.60
Everton xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.1 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.60 for Everton, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 69 games, going 26W 15D 28L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.20 PPG from 69 outings (20W 23D 26L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Nottingham Forest against 1.20 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 14W 9D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.03 points per game from 34 outings (8W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Everton in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 15D 28L in their last 69 games (1.35 PPG), while Everton have gone 20W 23D 26L in their last 69 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Everton away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.50 PPG; Everton away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Everton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Everton have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
5
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Everton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 56%, Everton 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nottingham Forest) and 38% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 44% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 38% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Nottingham Forest 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Nottingham Forest 0-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.34 xG and Everton 0.60 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 1.12 / defence 0.61 against Everton attack 0.70 / defence 0.83, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 55% | Draw 28% | Everton 17%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 54%, Everton 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.35 PPG, Everton 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.