Port Vale 3-2 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon meet at Vale Park in League Two, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port Vale's overall League Two record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale's home record at Vale Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Vale Park this season.
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Port Vale, 1.90 for AFC Wimbledon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
AFC Wimbledon half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 43% versus AFC Wimbledon 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 46% | AFC Wimbledon 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.10 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.008 / defence 0.895 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.599 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.262. Data: 13 Port Vale games / 56 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 46% | Draw 32% | AFC Wimbledon 22%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | AFC Wimbledon 4.55. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — AFC Wimbledon's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 60% | AFC Wimbledon 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 46% | Draw 32% | AFC Wimbledon 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Port Vale 1.10 / AFC Wimbledon 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.008 / def 0.895 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.599 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.68
AFC Wimbledon xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Port Vale 3 - 2 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 46% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon in?
Port Vale (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port Vale's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.60x) against Port Vale's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 13/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.12
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Port Vale xG
Total xG
1.78
0.68
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.68 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port Vale come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 13D 26L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.50 PPG from 56 outings (23W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Port Vale against 1.50 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Port Vale's home form reads 8W 6D 14L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Wimbledon's season.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.43 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 17W 13D 26L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 23W 15D 18L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Port Vale's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.07 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Port Vale or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Port Vale
1
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Port Vale 0-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 50%, AFC Wimbledon 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Port Vale) and 29% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 39%; Port Vale have failed to score in 32% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Port Vale's recent matches and 32% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Port Vale's recent games and 29% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 39% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out AFC Wimbledon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat AFC Wimbledon 3-2 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.10 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.68 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.60 / defence 0.84, drawn from 13/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 46% | Draw 32% | AFC Wimbledon 22%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 46%, AFC Wimbledon 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.14 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.