Harrogate Town 0-3 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Harrogate Town host AFC Wimbledon at Exercise Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Harrogate Town — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Harrogate Town have posted 4W 0D 6L at Exercise Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Harrogate Town at 1.10 PPG versus AFC Wimbledon's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Harrogate Town, 2 for AFC Wimbledon and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Harrogate Town trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 52% versus AFC Wimbledon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 49% | AFC Wimbledon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.10 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.934 / defence 1.099 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.011 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.242. Data: 64 Harrogate Town games / 63 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 43%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | AFC Wimbledon 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Harrogate Town 50% | AFC Wimbledon 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Exercise Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Harrogate Town 1.10 / AFC Wimbledon 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 0.934 / def 1.099 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.011 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.38
AFC Wimbledon xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Exercise Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Harrogate Town 0 - 3 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Exercise Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 29% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (4 meetings): Harrogate Town 0W | Draws 2 | AFC Wimbledon 2W.
What form are Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon in?
Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Harrogate Town's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Harrogate Town's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
29%
3.43
28%
3.53
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.48
1.38
AFC Wimbledon xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.38 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Harrogate Town come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 15D 26L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.46 PPG from 63 outings (25W 17D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Harrogate Town on 1.29 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Harrogate Town's home form reads 13W 3D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Harrogate Town are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.44 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Harrogate Town's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.35 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Harrogate Town or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Harrogate Town have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Wimbledon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when AFC Wimbledon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Harrogate Town's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Harrogate Town
2
Draws
4
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Harrogate Town have won 0, AFC Wimbledon have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 55%, AFC Wimbledon 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Harrogate Town) and 32% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 39%; Harrogate Town have failed to score in 26% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Harrogate Town play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 36% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 32% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Harrogate Town have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AFC Wimbledon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Harrogate Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Harrogate Town 0-3 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.10 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 43%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 49%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.29 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.