Grimsby vs Crawley Town – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Grimsby at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grimsby vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Crawley Town travel to Blundell Park to take on Grimsby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grimsby stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Grimsby have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grimsby at Blundell Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Grimsby are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Grimsby, 2 for Crawley Town and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Grimsby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Grimsby in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grimsby 52% versus Crawley Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 48% | Crawley Town 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.56 xG and Crawley Town 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 1.143 / defence 0.996 | Crawley Town attack 1.032 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Data: 50 Grimsby games / 50 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grimsby 46% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 27%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 3.70. Grimsby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grimsby are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grimsby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Grimsby 60% | Crawley Town 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 46% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Grimsby 1.56 / Crawley Town 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 1.143 / def 0.996 | Crawley Town attack 1.032 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Crawley Town xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grimsby vs Crawley Town kick off?
Grimsby vs Crawley Town is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Blundell Park.
Where is Grimsby vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Crawley Town part of?
Grimsby vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 46% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Grimsby and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Grimsby vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Crawley Town?
Record (6 meetings): Grimsby 3W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Grimsby and Crawley Town in?
Grimsby (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Grimsby's attack at 1.14x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.61
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Grimsby xG
Total xG
2.70
1.14
Crawley Town xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
6%
17.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.14 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Grimsby have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 22W 15D 13L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Grimsby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crawley Town's form line: 9W 17D 24L from 50 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Grimsby are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Grimsby have posted 1.68 PPG from 25 outings (12W 6D 7L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 4W 7D 14L from 25 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grimsby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Grimsby are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.94 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grimsby and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 22W 15D 13L in their last 50 games (1.62 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or Crawley Town away?
Grimsby's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.68 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Grimsby or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grimsby and Crawley Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Grimsby have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Grimsby won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grimsby's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Grimsby
1
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Grimsby have won 3, Crawley Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Crawley Town 0-2 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Grimsby and Crawley Town?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 52%, Crawley Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Grimsby) and 48% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Grimsby keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Crawley Town in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grimsby play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Grimsby's recent matches and 40% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grimsby vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Grimsby's recent games and 48% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grimsby and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Grimsby have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.