Gillingham 0-3 Oldham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gillingham at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gillingham vs Oldham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gillingham and Oldham meet at Priestfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gillingham's overall League Two record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Priestfield Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Oldham have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Oldham away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gillingham, 0 for Oldham and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Gillingham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gillingham — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Oldham — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 57% versus Oldham 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 43% | Oldham 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.60 xG and Oldham 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 1.089 / defence 1.194 | Oldham attack 0.819 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.174. Data: 77 Gillingham games / 30 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 48% | Draw 25% | Oldham 27%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Oldham 3.70. Gillingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gillingham are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gillingham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 100% | Oldham 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 48% | Draw 25% | Oldham 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Gillingham 1.60 / Oldham 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 1.089 / def 1.194 | Oldham attack 0.819 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Oldham xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Oldham kick off?
Gillingham vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Oldham?
Gillingham 0 - 3 Oldham.
Where is Gillingham vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Oldham part of?
Gillingham vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 48% chance of winning, Oldham a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gillingham and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Oldham?
Record (1 meetings): Gillingham 1W | Draws 0 | Oldham 0W.
What form are Gillingham and Oldham in?
Gillingham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Oldham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gillingham's attack rating (1.09) and Oldham's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oldham's attack (0.82x) against Gillingham's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 77/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.02
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.74
1.15
Oldham xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
6%
17.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.15 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gillingham's recent record stands at 10W 10D 10L from 30 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Oldham, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 9L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Gillingham against 1.30 for Oldham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 5W 6D 3L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oldham's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Gillingham are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 1.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Oldham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Oldham in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Oldham have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Oldham away?
Gillingham's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.50 PPG; Oldham away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Oldham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gillingham
0
Draws
1
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 1, Oldham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Gillingham 0-3 Oldham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 79%, Oldham 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gillingham) and 43% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Oldham in 43%; Oldham in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Oldham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Gillingham's games and 36% of Oldham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gillingham vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gillingham's recent games and 43% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Oldham tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Oldham in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oldham run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham beat Gillingham 0-3 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.60 xG and Oldham 1.15 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gillingham fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Oldham outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 1.09 / defence 1.19 against Oldham attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 77/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 48% | Draw 25% | Oldham 27%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Oldham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 43%, Oldham 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Oldham's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.33 PPG, Oldham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oldham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.