Crewe 3-1 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Crewe at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Tranmere encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tranmere make the trip to Mornflake Stadium to face Crewe in League Two, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crewe's overall League Two record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mornflake Stadium, Crewe have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mornflake Stadium this season.
Tranmere have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tranmere, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tranmere's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Crewe's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Tranmere's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crewe lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Crewe — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Tranmere — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 47% versus Tranmere 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 45% | Tranmere 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.44 xG and Tranmere 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.980 / defence 0.925 | Tranmere attack 0.832 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.262. Data: 58 Crewe games / 58 Tranmere games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 48% | Draw 27% | Tranmere 25%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Tranmere 4.00. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 10% | Tranmere 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 48% | Draw 27% | Tranmere 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Crewe 1.44 / Tranmere 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.980 / def 0.925 | Tranmere attack 0.832 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Crewe (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Tranmere xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Tranmere kick off?
Crewe vs Tranmere kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Tranmere?
Crewe 3 - 1 Tranmere.
Where is Crewe vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Tranmere part of?
Crewe vs Tranmere is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 48% chance of winning, Tranmere a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Crewe and Tranmere will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Tranmere?
Record (4 meetings): Crewe 2W | Draws 1 | Tranmere 1W.
What form are Crewe and Tranmere in?
Crewe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Tranmere (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Crewe vs Tranmere?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Crewe's attack rating (0.98) and Tranmere's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tranmere's attack (0.83x) against Crewe's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.76
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.41
0.97
Tranmere xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
6%
16.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Crewe and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Crewe and 0.97 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Tranmere?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crewe come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 15D 18L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tranmere sit at 1.22 PPG from 58 outings (20W 11D 27L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Tranmere is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Crewe against 1.22 for Tranmere. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Crewe's home form reads 13W 6D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Tranmere have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (7W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crewe are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.28 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Tranmere
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 25W 15D 18L in their last 58 games (1.55 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 20W 11D 27L in their last 58 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Tranmere away?
Crewe's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.61 PPG; Tranmere away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Crewe or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Tranmere in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Crewe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tranmere won 3-0 on 14 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tranmere — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Crewe
1
Draws
2
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Tranmere?
From 8 meetings on record, Crewe have won 5, Tranmere have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Tranmere last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Crewe 2-1 Tranmere.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Tranmere?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 39%, Tranmere 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crewe) and 50% (Tranmere).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Crewe have failed to score in 29% of games; Tranmere in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Tranmere?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Crewe's recent matches and 54% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Tranmere usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crewe's recent games and 50% of Tranmere's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Tranmere tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Tranmere in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tranmere.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Tranmere 3-1 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.44 xG and Tranmere 0.97 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Tranmere attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 48% | Draw 27% | Tranmere 25%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 45%, Tranmere 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Tranmere's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.55 PPG, Tranmere 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.