Crawley Town 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Milton Keynes Dons.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Milton Keynes Dons in League Two (matchday 3). Kick-off: Tuesday 15 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Milton Keynes Dons have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Milton Keynes Dons's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.20 for Milton Keynes Dons. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Milton Keynes Dons — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 52% versus Milton Keynes Dons 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 48% | Milton Keynes Dons 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.76 xG and Milton Keynes Dons 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.959 / defence 0.874 | Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.327 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.095. Milton Keynes Dons's defence rating of 1.341 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Milton Keynes Dons have an above-average attack rating of 1.327, which lifts their away xG to 1.27. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 48 games and Milton Keynes Dons's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 49% | Draw 23% | Milton Keynes Dons 28%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.04 | Draw 4.27 | Milton Keynes Dons 3.62. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Milton Keynes Dons 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Crawley Town 48 games, Milton Keynes Dons 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons | Competition: League Two, matchday 3 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 49% | Draw 23% | Milton Keynes Dons 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Crawley Town 1.76 / Milton Keynes Dons 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.959 / def 0.874 | Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.327 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons kick off?
Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 15 August 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?
Crawley Town 2 - 1 Milton Keynes Dons.
Where is Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons part of?
Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons is a League Two fixture (matchday 3) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 49% chance of winning, Milton Keynes Dons a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.96x the league average against Milton Keynes Dons's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Milton Keynes Dons's attack (1.33x) against Crawley Town's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 48 games and Milton Keynes Dons's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.27
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.03
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.27 for Milton Keynes Dons, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town come into this having played 48 games, going 12W 14D 22L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Milton Keynes Dons sit at 1.06 PPG from 48 outings (13W 12D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.06 for Milton Keynes Dons. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Crawley Town's home form reads 10W 7D 7L across their last 24 home games, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Milton Keynes Dons have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Milton Keynes Dons are on 1.04 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Milton Keynes Dons
Early Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Milton Keynes Dons (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Early Season
Milton Keynes Dons
Early Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 12W 14D 22L in their last 48 games (1.04 PPG), while Milton Keynes Dons have gone 13W 12D 23L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Milton Keynes Dons away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.54 PPG; Milton Keynes Dons away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 17 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crawley Town won Milton Keynes Dons 1-5 Crawley Town on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Milton Keynes Dons — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
2
Draws
1
Milton Keynes Dons
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 3, Milton Keynes Dons have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2026: Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Milton Keynes Dons are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 54%, Milton Keynes Dons 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crawley Town) and 46% (Milton Keynes Dons).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Crawley Town have failed to score in 29% of games; Milton Keynes Dons in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Milton Keynes Dons away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 42% of Milton Keynes Dons's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crawley Town's recent games and 46% of Milton Keynes Dons's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Milton Keynes Dons matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 83% of Milton Keynes Dons's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Milton Keynes Dons 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.76 xG and Milton Keynes Dons 1.27 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.33 / defence 1.34, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 49% | Draw 23% | Milton Keynes Dons 28%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 48%, Milton Keynes Dons 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Milton Keynes Dons's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.04 PPG, Milton Keynes Dons 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 3
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →