Crawley Town 0-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Gillingham.

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Match Analysis

Crawley Town host Gillingham at Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Crawley Town — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Gillingham have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Gillingham's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 2.00 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Gillingham and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Crawley Town 0–1 Gillingham — a Gillingham win.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Gillingham in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Gillingham 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crawley Town 49% | Gillingham 22%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.95 xG and Gillingham 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.975 / defence 0.853 | Gillingham attack 0.955 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.090. Gillingham bring a tight defence (rating 0.705, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Crawley Town's projected output down. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 49 games and Gillingham's last 49.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 35% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 32%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.84 | Draw 3.01 | Gillingham 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Gillingham's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 30% (last 10 away games).

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