Stockport County 1-0 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Wrexham at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 6W 2D 2L at Edgeley Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Wrexham have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wrexham have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wrexham — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for Wrexham and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Wrexham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Wrexham trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Wrexham 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 55% | Wrexham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.39 xG and Wrexham 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.122 / defence 1.184 | Wrexham attack 0.812 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.149. Data: 15 Stockport County games / 14 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 43% | Draw 27% | Wrexham 30%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Wrexham 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wrexham (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Stockport County 40% | Wrexham 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Wrexham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 43% | Draw 27% | Wrexham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Stockport County 1.39 / Wrexham 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.122 / def 1.184 | Wrexham attack 0.812 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Wrexham xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Wrexham kick off?
Stockport County vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 November 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Wrexham?
Stockport County 1 - 0 Wrexham.
Where is Stockport County vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Wrexham part of?
Stockport County vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 43% chance of winning, Wrexham a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stockport County and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wrexham?
Record (2 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Wrexham 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Wrexham in?
Stockport County (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Wrexham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Stockport County vs Wrexham?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.12) and Wrexham's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.74
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.49
1.10
Wrexham xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.10 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 17D 10L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wrexham sit at 1.93 PPG from 60 outings (34W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.93 PPG, Wrexham on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 19W 7D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Wrexham have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wrexham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.85 scored and 1.03 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Wrexham in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 33W 17D 10L in their last 60 games (1.93 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 34W 14D 12L in their last 60 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Wrexham away?
Stockport County's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.13 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Wrexham in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Stockport County won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Wrexham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
0
Draws
2
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wrexham?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Wrexham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Wrexham 1-0 Stockport County.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 37%, Wrexham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stockport County) and 37% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Wrexham in 33%; Wrexham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Stockport County's recent matches and 47% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stockport County's recent games and 37% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Wrexham tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Wrexham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Wrexham 1-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.39 xG and Wrexham 1.10 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wrexham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.12 / defence 1.18 against Wrexham attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 43% | Draw 27% | Wrexham 30%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 55%, Wrexham 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wrexham's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.93 PPG, Wrexham 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.