Stockport County vs Wigan – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Wigan at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stockport County haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wigan haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Stockport County) versus 1.50 (Wigan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stockport County, 0 for Wigan and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 4–2 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Wigan trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 59% versus Wigan 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 59% | Wigan 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.71 xG and Wigan 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.091 / defence 0.966 | Wigan attack 0.942 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.240. Data: 46 Stockport County games / 46 Wigan games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 25%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Wigan 4.00. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Wigan 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Stockport County 1.71 / Wigan 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.091 / def 0.966 | Wigan attack 0.942 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Wigan xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Wigan kick off?
Stockport County vs Wigan is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Edgeley Park.
Where is Stockport County vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Wigan part of?
Stockport County vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 51% chance of winning, Wigan a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stockport County and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
Record (4 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 2 | Wigan 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.18
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.84
1.13
Wigan xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.13 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 10D 14L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. Stockport County haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.22 PPG from 46 outings (14W 14D 18L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. Wigan haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Wigan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (3W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.07 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Pre-Season
Wigan
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 22W 10D 14L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while Wigan have gone 14W 14D 18L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Wigan away?
Stockport County's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.87 PPG; Wigan away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Wigan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Stockport County 4-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Wigan?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 61%, Wigan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Stockport County) and 44% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Wigan in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Stockport County's games and 65% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Stockport County's recent games and 44% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Wigan tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Wigan in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.