Stevenage 2-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Stockport County meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 2D 3L at Lamex Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stockport County (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Stockport County and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Stockport County — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 40% versus Stockport County 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 41% | Stockport County 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.01 xG and Stockport County 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.815 / defence 0.895 | Stockport County attack 0.987 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.097. Data: 63 Stevenage games / 19 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 36% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 33%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Stockport County 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 20% | Stockport County 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 36% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Stevenage 1.01 / Stockport County 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.815 / def 0.895 | Stockport County attack 0.987 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Stockport County xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Stockport County kick off?
Stevenage vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Stevenage 2 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Stevenage vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Stockport County part of?
Stevenage vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 36% chance of winning, Stockport County a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stevenage and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Stockport County?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Stockport County in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.99x) against Stevenage's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 63/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.23
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.98
0.97
Stockport County xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.97 for Stockport County, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 25W 18D 20L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County's form line: 36W 17D 10L from 63 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stevenage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (14W 9D 8L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 15W 10D 6L from 31 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 2.00 scored and 1.02 conceded. Stockport County's attacking output running into Stevenage's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Stockport County in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 25W 18D 20L in their last 63 games (1.48 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 36W 17D 10L in their last 63 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.65 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Stockport County in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stevenage
0
Draws
4
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Stockport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Stockport County have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 39%, Stockport County 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stevenage) and 64% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stevenage's recent matches and 71% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stevenage's recent games and 64% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Stockport County tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Stockport County 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Stockport County 2-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.01 xG and Stockport County 0.97 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.81 / defence 0.90 against Stockport County attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 36% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 33%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 41%, Stockport County 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.