Stevenage 1-0 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Blackpool in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's home record at The Lamex Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Blackpool (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Blackpool's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Stevenage, 1.60 for Blackpool — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Blackpool and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Blackpool winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Blackpool half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 47% versus Blackpool 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 44% | Blackpool 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.50 xG and Blackpool 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.988 / defence 0.940 | Blackpool attack 0.927 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.151. Data: 27 Stevenage games / 29 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 49% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 25%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Blackpool 4.00. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 60% | Blackpool 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Blackpool | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 49% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Stevenage 1.50 / Blackpool 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.988 / def 0.940 | Blackpool attack 0.927 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Blackpool xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Blackpool kick off?
Stevenage vs Blackpool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Blackpool.
Where is Stevenage vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Blackpool part of?
Stevenage vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 49% chance of winning, Blackpool a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stevenage and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Blackpool?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Blackpool 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Blackpool in?
Stevenage (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Blackpool (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.99x the league average against Blackpool's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.93x) against Stevenage's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 27/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.83
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
Blackpool xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.00 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage's recent record stands at 38W 20D 15L from 73 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 32L across 73 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Blackpool heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 22W 8D 5L from 35 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackpool's away record stands at 8W 9D 18L across 35 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Blackpool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 38W 20D 15L in their last 73 games (1.84 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 23W 18D 32L in their last 73 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Blackpool away?
Stevenage's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.11 PPG; Blackpool away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Blackpool in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stevenage go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackpool won 3-0 on 14 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stevenage
1
Draws
2
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Blackpool?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Blackpool have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Blackpool.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Blackpool?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Blackpool 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stevenage) and 51% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Blackpool in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Blackpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 46% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stevenage's recent games and 51% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Blackpool tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Blackpool 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Blackpool 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.50 xG and Blackpool 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Blackpool landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Blackpool attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 49% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 25%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 44%, Blackpool 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Blackpool's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Blackpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.