Blackpool 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackpool at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackpool vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Charlton travel to Bloomfield Road to take on Blackpool. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Blackpool — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Blackpool's home record at Bloomfield Road: 7W 0D 3L from 10 League One appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bloomfield Road.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Blackpool are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Blackpool, 0 for Charlton and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Blackpool in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackpool 46% versus Charlton 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackpool 53% | Charlton 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackpool 2.14 xG and Charlton 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackpool attack 1.306 / defence 0.985 | Charlton attack 0.981 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.123. Blackpool carry an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Blackpool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Blackpool games / 74 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackpool 61% | Draw 20% | Charlton 18%. Fair-value odds: Blackpool 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Charlton 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Blackpool (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Blackpool at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Blackpool 50% | Charlton 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackpool vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Bloomfield Road • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackpool 61% | Draw 20% | Charlton 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Blackpool 2.14 / Charlton 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Blackpool attack 1.306 / def 0.985 | Charlton attack 0.981 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Blackpool (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Blackpool xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Charlton xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackpool vs Charlton kick off?
Blackpool vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Bloomfield Road.
What was the final score in Blackpool vs Charlton?
Blackpool 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Blackpool vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Bloomfield Road.
What competition is Blackpool vs Charlton part of?
Blackpool vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackpool vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Blackpool a 61% chance of winning, Charlton a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Blackpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackpool vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Blackpool and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Blackpool vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Blackpool 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Blackpool and Charlton in?
Blackpool (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Blackpool's attack rating (1.31) and Charlton's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Blackpool's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackpool Win
61%
1.63
20%
4.96
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Blackpool xG
Total xG
3.23
1.08
Charlton xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
12%
8.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
2%
46.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackpool vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Blackpool and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Blackpool and 1.08 for Charlton, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackpool vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Blackpool come into this having played 74 games, going 24W 17D 33L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.24 PPG from 74 outings (23W 23D 28L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackpool on 1.20 PPG, Charlton on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Blackpool's home form reads 15W 8D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.03 points per game from 36 outings (8W 13D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Blackpool are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.51 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 66%.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackpool
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackpool and Charlton in coming into this match?
Blackpool have gone 24W 17D 33L in their last 74 games (1.20 PPG), while Charlton have gone 23W 23D 28L in their last 74 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackpool at home or Charlton away?
Blackpool's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackpool at home: 1.47 PPG; Charlton away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Blackpool's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Blackpool
3
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Blackpool have won 1, Charlton have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Blackpool and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Blackpool 2-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Blackpool and Charlton?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackpool 50%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Blackpool) and 47% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Blackpool keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Blackpool have failed to score in 28% of games; Charlton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackpool home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackpool play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Blackpool's recent matches and 58% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackpool vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Blackpool's recent games and 47% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackpool and Charlton tend to score early?
Blackpool have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Charlton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackpool and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackpool and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 2.14 xG and Charlton 1.08 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Blackpool fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 1.31 / defence 0.98 against Charlton attack 0.98 / defence 1.23, drawn from 28/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackpool 61% | Draw 20% | Charlton 18%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 53%, Charlton 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackpool's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.20 PPG, Charlton 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.