Plymouth vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Notts County travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 March 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 5W 1D 4L at Home Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Notts County have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Notts County in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Notts County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 57% | Notts County 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.48 xG and Notts County 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.977 / defence 1.004 | Notts County attack 0.686 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.292. Data: 58 Plymouth games / 10 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 50% | Draw 28% | Notts County 22%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Notts County 4.55. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 60% | Notts County 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 50% | Draw 28% | Notts County 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Plymouth 1.48 / Notts County 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.977 / def 1.004 | Notts County attack 0.686 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Notts County xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Notts County kick off?
Plymouth vs Notts County is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Monday 29 March 2027 at Home Park.
Where is Plymouth vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Notts County part of?
Plymouth vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 50% chance of winning, Notts County a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Plymouth and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Notts County in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Notts County (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.98x the league average against Notts County's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.55
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.37
0.89
Notts County xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
20.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.89 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 58 games, going 28W 8D 22L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.66 PPG from 58 outings (28W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.59 PPG, Notts County on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 13W 4D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.50 points per game from 28 outings (12W 6D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Notts County in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 28W 8D 22L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Notts County have gone 28W 12D 18L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Notts County away?
Plymouth's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.54 PPG; Notts County away: 1.50 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 54%, Notts County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Plymouth) and 46% (Notts County).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Plymouth's recent matches and 50% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Plymouth's recent games and 46% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Notts County tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Notts County in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.