Mansfield Town 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mansfield Town and Stevenage meet at One Call Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mansfield Town's home record at One Call Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Mansfield Town 3W, Stevenage 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 62% versus Stevenage 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 62% | Stevenage 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.57 xG and Stevenage 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.197 / defence 1.115 | Stevenage attack 1.037 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.025. Data: 53 Mansfield Town games / 52 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 46% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 29%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Stevenage 3.45. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 70% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 46% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Mansfield Town 1.57 / Stevenage 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.197 / def 1.115 | Stevenage attack 1.037 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Stevenage xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Stevenage kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Mansfield Town 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage part of?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 46% chance of winning, Stevenage a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mansfield Town and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Record (6 meetings): Mansfield Town 3W | Draws 2 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Stevenage (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (1.04x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.00
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.75
1.19
Stevenage xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
6%
16.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.19 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 17W 10D 25L from 52 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 20L across 52 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.38 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 10W 4D 12L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 8W 7D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stevenage in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 17W 10D 25L in their last 52 games (1.17 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 20W 12D 20L in their last 52 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Stevenage away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.31 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Stevenage in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
4
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Stevenage have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 62%, Stevenage 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mansfield Town) and 31% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 38%; Stevenage in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 35% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 31% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Stevenage tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mansfield Town and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Mansfield Town and Stevenage drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.57 xG and Stevenage 1.19 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against Stevenage attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 46% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 29%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 62%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.17 PPG, Stevenage 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.