Lincoln 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 44%, yet in-form Stevenage provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lincoln vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Stevenage at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lincoln — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's home record at LNER Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Lincoln are significantly better at LNER Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stevenage — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lincoln, 1 for Stevenage and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Lincoln winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (68 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (68 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 47% versus Stevenage 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 41% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.02 xG and Stevenage 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.010 / defence 0.932 | Stevenage attack 0.581 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.174. Stevenage's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 Lincoln games / 68 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 44% | Draw 34% | Stevenage 22%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Stevenage 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 60% | Stevenage 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 44% | Draw 34% | Stevenage 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Lincoln 1.02 / Stevenage 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.010 / def 0.932 | Stevenage attack 0.581 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Stevenage xG
30%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Stevenage kick off?
Lincoln vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Lincoln vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Stevenage part of?
Lincoln vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 44% chance of winning, Stevenage a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Lincoln and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Lincoln and Stevenage in?
Lincoln (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.01x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
44%
2.28
34%
2.97
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Lincoln xG
Total xG
1.66
0.64
Stevenage xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.32
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
8%
12.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.64 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 27W 21D 20L from 68 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 27W 20D 21L across 68 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.50 PPG, Stevenage on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 13W 9D 10L from 32 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 10W 10D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.10 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Stevenage in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 27W 21D 20L in their last 68 games (1.50 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 27W 20D 21L in their last 68 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Stevenage away?
Lincoln's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.50 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stevenage in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lincoln
3
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 2, Stevenage have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Stevenage 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Stevenage?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 47%, Stevenage 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lincoln) and 47% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Stevenage in 41%; Lincoln have failed to score in 31% of games; Stevenage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lincoln's recent matches and 41% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lincoln's recent games and 47% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Stevenage tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Stevenage finished level at 0-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.02 xG and Stevenage 0.64 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Stevenage attack 0.58 / defence 0.79, drawn from 70/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 44% | Draw 34% | Stevenage 22%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 41%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.50 PPG, Stevenage 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.