Exeter City 0-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Exeter City at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Exeter City vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lincoln travel to St James Park to take on Exeter City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 November 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Exeter City stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Exeter City's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at St James Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St James Park.
Across all League One games this season, Lincoln have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Exeter City at 1.90 PPG versus Lincoln's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Exeter City have won 1, Lincoln 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Lincoln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Exeter City in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 39% versus Lincoln 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 42% | Lincoln 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.02 xG and Lincoln 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.819 / defence 0.844 | Lincoln attack 0.943 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.155. Data: 59 Exeter City games / 60 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 37% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 32%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Lincoln 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Exeter City as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Exeter City 40% | Lincoln 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 37% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Exeter City 1.02 / Lincoln 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.819 / def 0.844 | Lincoln attack 0.943 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Lincoln xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Lincoln kick off?
Exeter City vs Lincoln kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 November 2024 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Lincoln?
Exeter City 0 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Exeter City vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Lincoln part of?
Exeter City vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 37% chance of winning, Lincoln a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Exeter City and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Lincoln?
Record (4 meetings): Exeter City 1W | Draws 2 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Exeter City and Lincoln in?
Exeter City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Lincoln (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.82) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.19
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Exeter City xG
Total xG
1.94
0.92
Lincoln xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.92 for Lincoln, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Exeter City's recent record stands at 24W 11D 24L from 59 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 27W 18D 14L across 59 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Exeter City on 1.41 PPG, Lincoln on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 11W 8D 10L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lincoln's away record stands at 13W 10D 6L across 29 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Exeter City are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.46 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Lincoln in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 24W 11D 24L in their last 59 games (1.41 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 27W 18D 14L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Lincoln away?
Lincoln's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.41 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lincoln in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Exeter City's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Exeter City
4
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 2, Lincoln have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Exeter City 0-1 Lincoln.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lincoln see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 38%, Lincoln 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Exeter City and 31% for Lincoln.
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lincoln in 34%; Exeter City have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Exeter City's recent matches and 52% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Exeter City's recent games and 31% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Lincoln tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Exeter City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City and Lincoln finished level at 0-0 at St James Park, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.02 xG and Lincoln 0.92 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Exeter City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lincoln landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.82 / defence 0.84 against Lincoln attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 37% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 32%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 42%, Lincoln 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lincoln's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.41 PPG, Lincoln 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.