Charlton 2-2 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 42%, yet in-form Wrexham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charlton vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Wrexham in League One, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charlton have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 4W 5D 1L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Wrexham (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Wrexham are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Wrexham half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 67% versus Wrexham 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Wrexham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.99 xG and Wrexham 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.926 / defence 0.815 | Wrexham attack 0.679 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.222. Data: 58 Charlton games / 12 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 42% | Draw 34% | Wrexham 24%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Wrexham 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Wrexham's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wrexham (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Wrexham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Wrexham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 42% | Draw 34% | Wrexham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Charlton 0.99 / Wrexham 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.926 / def 0.815 | Wrexham attack 0.679 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Charlton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Wrexham xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Wrexham kick off?
Charlton vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Wrexham?
Charlton 2 - 2 Wrexham.
Where is Charlton vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Wrexham part of?
Charlton vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 42% chance of winning, Wrexham a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Charlton and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Wrexham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Wrexham in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Wrexham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Charlton vs Wrexham?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.93x the league average against Wrexham's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wrexham's attack (0.68x) against Charlton's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 58/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
42%
2.39
34%
2.96
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.67
0.68
Wrexham xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 12.8 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Charlton and 0.68 for Wrexham, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 23D 19L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wrexham's form line: 33W 13D 12L from 58 games, 1.93 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wrexham are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (11W 10D 8L).
On the road, Wrexham have gone 11W 9D 9L from 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wrexham's season.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.86 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wrexham in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 16W 23D 19L in their last 58 games (1.22 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 33W 13D 12L in their last 58 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Wrexham away?
Charlton's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.48 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Charlton or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Wrexham in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Wrexham go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wrexham won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wrexham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Charlton
1
Draws
3
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Wrexham?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 0, Wrexham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Charlton 0-1 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 69%, Wrexham 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Charlton) and 34% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 34%; Wrexham in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Wrexham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Charlton's games and 45% of Wrexham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Charlton's recent games and 34% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Wrexham tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Wrexham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 14, as Charlton and Wrexham drew 2-2 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.99 xG and Wrexham 0.68 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wrexham outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.93 / defence 0.81 against Wrexham attack 0.68 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 42% | Draw 34% | Wrexham 24%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Wrexham 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Wrexham's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.