Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charlton (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charlton face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Burton Albion at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Charlton have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Charlton have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Burton Albion have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charlton and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 58% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 52% | Burton Albion 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.50 xG and Burton Albion 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.217 / defence 0.759 | Burton Albion attack 0.733 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.174. Charlton's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 91 Charlton games / 91 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 57% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 16%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 40% | Burton Albion 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 57% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 38% | xG Charlton 1.50 / Burton Albion 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.217 / def 0.759 | Burton Albion attack 0.733 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Charlton (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Burton Albion xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Charlton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Charlton 3 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Charlton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Burton Albion part of?
Charlton vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 57% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Charlton and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Burton Albion?
Record (7 meetings): Charlton 4W | Draws 2 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Charlton and Burton Albion in?
Charlton (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.22x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 91/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
57%
1.74
27%
3.71
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.15
0.65
Burton Albion xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
28.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Charlton and 0.65 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 91 games, going 35W 30D 26L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.02 PPG from 91 outings (23W 24D 44L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Charlton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 22W 14D 9L across 45 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.98 points per game from 45 outings (10W 14D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.96 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 35W 30D 26L in their last 91 games (1.48 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 23W 24D 44L in their last 91 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Burton Albion away?
Charlton's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.78 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.98 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Burton Albion runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Charlton's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 5, Burton Albion have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Burton Albion?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 62%, Burton Albion 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Charlton) and 44% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burton Albion in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Charlton's recent matches and 42% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Charlton's recent games and 44% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Burton Albion 3-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.50 xG and Burton Albion 0.65 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.22 / defence 0.76 against Burton Albion attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 57% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 16%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 52%, Burton Albion 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Burton Albion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.