Portsmouth 2-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fratton Park plays host to Portsmouth versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Portsmouth have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Portsmouth are significantly better at Fratton Park than their overall form suggests.
Derby (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Derby have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Derby and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–4 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 54% versus Derby 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 60% | Derby 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.66 xG and Derby 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.042 / defence 0.925 | Derby attack 0.806 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.991. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Portsmouth games / 41 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 60% | Draw 24% | Derby 16%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Portsmouth 50% | Derby 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 60% | Draw 24% | Derby 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 42% | xG Portsmouth 1.66 / Derby 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.042 / def 0.925 | Derby attack 0.806 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Derby xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Derby kick off?
Portsmouth vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth 2 - 2 Derby.
Where is Portsmouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Derby part of?
Portsmouth vs Derby is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 60% chance of winning, Derby a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Portsmouth and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 4 | Derby 1W.
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (1.04) and Derby's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.81x) against Portsmouth's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.15
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.40
0.74
Derby xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
3%
32.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.74 for Derby, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 40W 22D 25L from 87 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 39W 17D 31L across 87 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.54 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 25W 10D 8L from 43 games — 1.98 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 15W 9D 19L across 43 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Portsmouth are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.38 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 40W 22D 25L in their last 87 games (1.63 PPG), while Derby have gone 39W 17D 31L in their last 87 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Derby away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.98 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.98 PPG; Derby away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Derby in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Derby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 4-0 on 13 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
6
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
From 9 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Portsmouth 0-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 60%, Derby 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Portsmouth) and 49% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Derby in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 49% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Portsmouth's matches and 49% of Derby's.
Do Portsmouth and Derby tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Derby in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth and Derby share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 42, as Portsmouth and Derby drew 2-2 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.66 xG and Derby 0.74 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Derby outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Derby attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 60% | Draw 24% | Derby 16%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 60%, Derby 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.63 PPG, Derby 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.