Derby 1-1 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park Stadium plays host to Derby versus Wrexham in Championship, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wrexham (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Derby 0W, Wrexham 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Wrexham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Wrexham half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 63% and Wrexham 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | Wrexham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.25 xG and Wrexham 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.803 / defence 1.227 | Wrexham attack 0.936 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.253. Data: 54 Derby games / 54 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 31% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 40%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Wrexham 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wrexham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | Wrexham 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Wrexham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 31% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Derby 1.25 / Wrexham 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.803 / def 1.227 | Wrexham attack 0.936 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Wrexham xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Wrexham kick off?
Derby vs Wrexham kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Wrexham?
Derby 1 - 1 Wrexham.
Where is Derby vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Wrexham part of?
Derby vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 31% chance of winning, Wrexham a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Derby and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wrexham?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Wrexham 1W.
What form are Derby and Wrexham in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Wrexham (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derby's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Wrexham's attack (0.94x) against Derby's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.34
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Derby xG
Total xG
2.68
1.44
Wrexham xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
7%
13.79
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Derby and 1.44 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derby come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 11D 22L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wrexham sit at 1.50 PPG from 54 outings (21W 18D 15L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Derby against 1.50 for Wrexham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Derby's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Wrexham have taken 1.44 points per game from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.44 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Wrexham in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 21W 18D 15L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.37 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wrexham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Derby
2
Draws
1
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wrexham?
From 3 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Wrexham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Derby 1-1 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 63%, Wrexham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Derby) and 44% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 33%; Wrexham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Wrexham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Derby's games and 52% of Wrexham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Derby's recent games and 44% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Wrexham tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Wrexham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Derby and Wrexham drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.25 xG and Wrexham 1.44 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.80 / defence 1.23 against Wrexham attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 31% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 40%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 54%, Wrexham 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Wrexham's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.37 PPG, Wrexham 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.