Zbrojovka Brno 1-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees České Budějovice travel to ADAX INVEST Arena to take on Zbrojovka Brno. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 26 April 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zbrojovka Brno stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at ADAX INVEST Arena, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
České Budějovice's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Zbrojovka Brno) versus 1.30 (České Budějovice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Zbrojovka Brno, 1 for České Budějovice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–3 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zbrojovka Brno in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 75% and České Budějovice 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zbrojovka Brno 79% | České Budějovice 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.85 xG and České Budějovice 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.841 / defence 1.328 | České Budějovice attack 0.860 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.215. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Zbrojovka Brno's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Zbrojovka Brno games / 58 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 48% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 28%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | České Budějovice 3.57. Zbrojovka Brno hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zbrojovka Brno at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 80% | České Budějovice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 48% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.85 / České Budějovice 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.841 / def 1.328 | České Budějovice attack 0.860 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.39
České Budějovice xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice?
Zbrojovka Brno 1 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 48% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice?
Record (1 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 0W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zbrojovka Brno's attack rating (0.84) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.23
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
3.24
1.39
České Budějovice xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
4%
22.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.39 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zbrojovka Brno's recent record stands at 8W 6D 14L from 28 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 15L across 28 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zbrojovka Brno on 1.07 PPG, České Budějovice on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zbrojovka Brno have managed 4W 3D 7L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 4W 2D 8L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.11 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 8W 6D 14L in their last 28 games (1.07 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 9W 4D 15L in their last 28 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or České Budějovice away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.07 PPG; České Budějovice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Zbrojovka Brno
1
Draws
1
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice?
From 2 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, České Budějovice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2023, when Zbrojovka Brno 1-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zbrojovka Brno at 79%, České Budějovice at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 93% for Zbrojovka Brno and 64% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 57% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 93% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 64% of České Budějovice's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at ADAX INVEST Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Zbrojovka Brno and České Budějovice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.85 xG and České Budějovice 1.39 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Zbrojovka Brno fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.84 / defence 1.33 against České Budějovice attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 48% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 28%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 79%, České Budějovice 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zbrojovka Brno 1.07 PPG, České Budějovice 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.