Teplice vs Slovan Liberec – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 44%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Slovan Liberec make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Teplice have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Teplice at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.

Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Teplice's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Teplice, who have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Slovan Liberec — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Teplice and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Slovan Liberec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Slovan Liberec 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.30 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.242 / defence 1.134 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.021 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Slovan Liberec's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Teplice games / 36 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 44%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Slovan Liberec 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 40% | Slovan Liberec 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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