Sparta Praha 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 75% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sparta Praha's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Teplice's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.30 PPG lead over Teplice (2.50 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sparta Praha, 0 for Teplice and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Sparta Praha 1–1 Teplice — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 54% versus Teplice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 56% | Teplice 54%). Note also that Teplice surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Sparta Praha recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.47 xG and Teplice 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.492 / defence 0.637 | Teplice attack 0.961 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.206. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.492 — their 2.47 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sparta Praha have a tight defence (rating 0.637), which is pulling Teplice's projected output down. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 48 games and Teplice's last 47.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 75% | Draw 16% | Teplice 9%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.33 | Draw 6.45 | Teplice 10.99. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (75%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 30% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 75% | Draw 16% | Teplice 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Sparta Praha 2.47 / Teplice 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.492 / def 0.637 | Teplice attack 0.961 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Teplice xG
48%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 December 2023 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Teplice part of?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 75% chance of winning, Teplice a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sparta Praha and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Sparta Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (1.49) and Teplice's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.96x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 48 games and Teplice's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.45
9%
10.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.21
0.74
Teplice xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.45
16%
Draw
10.99
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
8%
11.87
Win to Nil
36%
2.78
1%
130.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.74 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 38W 11D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Teplice's form line: 16W 14D 22L from 52 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.58 PPG from their last 26 home games (21W 4D 1L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 7W 3D 16L from their last 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.15 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 38W 11D 3L in their last 52 games (2.40 PPG), while Teplice have gone 16W 14D 22L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Teplice away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.58 PPG; Teplice away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Teplice in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Teplice 0-3 Sparta Praha on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 6, Teplice have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 54%, Teplice 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sparta Praha and 73% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Teplice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sparta Praha's games and 65% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Praha and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sparta Praha's matches and 73% of Teplice's.
Do Sparta Praha and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 73% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Teplice 2-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.47 xG and Teplice 0.74 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.49 / defence 0.64 against Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 75% | Draw 16% | Teplice 9%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 56%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.