Sparta Praha 3-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec meet at epet ARENA in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's home record at epet ARENA: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at epet ARENA.
FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Sparta Praha's favour (2.50 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sparta Praha 2W, FK Jablonec 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 5–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 56% versus FK Jablonec 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 56% | FK Jablonec 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.19 xG and FK Jablonec 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.531 / defence 0.703 | FK Jablonec attack 0.832 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.189. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.531 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sparta Praha's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Sparta Praha games / 47 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 72% | Draw 18% | FK Jablonec 10%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | FK Jablonec 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 40% | FK Jablonec 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 72% | Draw 18% | FK Jablonec 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 44% | xG Sparta Praha 2.19 / FK Jablonec 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.531 / def 0.703 | FK Jablonec attack 0.832 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.69
FK Jablonec xG
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha 3 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 72% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Praha 2W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.83x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 3-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
72%
1.40
18%
5.57
10%
9.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.88
0.69
FK Jablonec xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.57
18%
Draw
9.60
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
11%
8.92
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
1%
85.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.69 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha's recent record stands at 37W 11D 4L from 52 games, a 2.35 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 21L across 52 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sparta Praha have managed 20W 4D 2L from 26 games — 2.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 5W 7D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.29 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 63%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 37W 11D 4L in their last 52 games (2.35 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 14W 17D 21L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or FK Jablonec away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.46 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-5 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
1
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 58%, FK Jablonec 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sparta Praha and 58% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sparta Praha's games and 62% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sparta Praha's matches and 58% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat FK Jablonec 3-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.19 xG and FK Jablonec 0.69 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.53 / defence 0.70 against FK Jablonec attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 72% | Draw 18% | FK Jablonec 10%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 56%, FK Jablonec 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.