Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians 1905 (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slovácko face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Bohemians 1905 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bohemians 1905 — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bohemians 1905 have the better historical record — 5 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Slovácko.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bohemians 1905 have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 50% versus Bohemians 1905 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 54% | Bohemians 1905 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.39 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.850 / defence 1.287 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Slovácko games / 42 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 30% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 42%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 70% | Bohemians 1905 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 30% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Slovácko 1.39 / Bohemians 1905 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.850 / def 1.287 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Bohemians 1905 xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Where is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 30% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 5W.
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovácko (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
30%
3.37
28%
3.59
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.06
1.68
Bohemians 1905 xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
18.08
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.68 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Slovácko have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 9W 11D 24L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 15W 11D 18L from 44 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bohemians 1905 are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovácko.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 5D 9L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 9W 11D 24L in their last 44 games (0.86 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovácko
3
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 57%, Bohemians 1905 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Slovácko and 52% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Slovácko's recent matches and 52% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Slovácko's matches and 52% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.